SI Appendix

Descriptive statistics

Landscape indicators

Descriptive statistics: Landscape indicators
Statistic N Mean St. Dev. Min Pctl(25) Pctl(75) Max
LSM_AREA_MN_ALL 34,188 2.887 3.096 0.587 1.389 3.501 262.563
LSM_CONTAG_ALL 34,188 64.998 9.029 37.286 58.516 70.527 99.709
LSM_ED_ALL 34,188 149.494 59.611 0.880 103.648 195.640 319.314
LSM_ENN_ALL 34,188 34.723 9.034 9 29 39 85
LSM_LPI_ALL 34,188 15.065 19.582 0.222 2.757 18.316 99.881
LSM_RICH_ALL 34,188 34.723 9.034 9 29 39 85
LSM_SHDI_ALL 34,188 1.659 0.445 0.010 1.392 1.970 3.027
LSM_SHEI_ALL 34,188 0.470 0.116 0.003 0.403 0.553 0.792
LSM_SIDI_ALL 34,188 0.694 0.154 0.002 0.626 0.802 0.927
LSM_SIEI_ALL 34,188 0.715 0.158 0.002 0.648 0.827 0.942
PNC 34,188 68.842 25.521 2.644 51.200 90.306 99.997

Agricultural data

Descriptive statistics: Corn
Statistic N Mean St. Dev. Min Pctl(25) Pctl(75) Max
YIELD 17,038 142.148 39.395 10.400 117.600 170.900 270.200
ACRES_PLANTED 17,052 53,663.890 59,947.730 500.000 7,800.000 81,525.000 374,000.000
TOTAL_ACRES 17,052 445,915.000 337,633.400 55,889.120 278,260.300 508,710.800 6,355,094.000
ACRES 17,052 13.729 14.456 0.012 2.006 22.375 62.165
PERC_IRR 31,999 17.623 16.242 0.000 6.410 23.681 100.000
GDD 34,188 3,135.750 698.344 0.000 2,614.248 3,615.295 5,030.119
SDD 34,188 193.239 205.582 0.000 35.908 298.062 1,671.627
TP 34,188 693.590 271.349 0.000 525.179 865.790 2,322.882
EfP 34,188 561.365 191.311 0.000 449.531 682.882 1,536.356
ExP 34,188 132.225 107.524 0.000 52.222 188.829 1,339.625
SOIL 34,188 0.320 0.189 0.001 0.198 0.433 0.887
Descriptive statistics: Soy
Statistic N Mean St. Dev. Min Pctl(25) Pctl(75) Max
YIELD 15,047 42.954 10.768 3.600 35.700 50.600 82.300
ACRES_PLANTED 15,047 55,494.710 55,280.660 500.000 10,500.000 87,700.000 541,000.000
TOTAL_ACRES 15,047 397,160.500 195,273.700 55,889.120 274,012.300 462,434.200 3,845,762.000
ACRES 15,047 14.663 12.570 0.038 3.115 25.327 63.926
PERC_IRR 31,999 17.623 16.242 0.000 6.410 23.681 100.000
GDD 34,188 2,962.279 687.684 0.000 2,452.808 3,545.367 4,509.170
SDD 34,188 192.814 203.847 0.000 35.538 298.916 1,659.719
TP 34,188 626.113 273.582 0.000 457.211 793.821 2,140.121
EfP 34,188 505.429 195.729 0.000 393.824 624.980 1,536.356
ExP 34,188 120.684 102.710 0.000 45.663 172.036 1,244.114
SOIL 34,188 0.311 0.175 0.003 0.183 0.428 0.780
Descriptive statistics: Corn
Statistic N Mean St. Dev. Min Pctl(25) Pctl(75) Max
YIELD 12,242 54.136 18.866 6.100 41.500 66.500 146.500
ACRES_PLANTED 12,254 29,477.600 51,467.060 300.000 3,200.000 26,500.000 446,000.000
TOTAL_ACRES 12,254 546,892.800 530,147.000 55,889.120 290,063.200 582,009.500 6,355,094.000
ACRES 12,254 5.214 7.577 0.023 0.858 5.832 53.872
PERC_IRR 31,999 17.623 16.242 0.000 6.410 23.681 100.000
GDD 34,188 5,280.120 939.247 0.000 4,641.888 5,841.753 8,546.627
SDD 34,188 93.573 103.201 0.000 22.241 128.267 983.768
TP 34,188 868.825 354.809 0.000 631.898 1,088.219 3,715.071
EfP 34,188 707.025 254.859 0.000 543.047 863.438 2,492.113
ExP 34,188 161.800 137.022 0.000 59.403 231.070 1,866.748
SOIL 34,188 0.257 0.118 0.003 0.168 0.341 0.591

Correlation (old)

LSM_AREA_MN_ALL LSM_CONTAG_ALL LSM_ED_ALL LSM_ENN_ALL LSM_LPI_ALL LSM_RICH_ALL LSM_SHDI_ALL LSM_SHEI_ALL LSM_SIDI_ALL LSM_SIEI_ALL PNC
LSM_AREA_MN_ALL 1
LSM_CONTAG_ALL 0.62 1
LSM_ED_ALL -0.59 -0.84 1
LSM_ENN_ALL -0.24 -0.22 0.29 1
LSM_LPI_ALL 0.49 0.71 -0.52 -0.13 1
LSM_RICH_ALL -0.24 -0.22 0.29 1 -0.13 1
LSM_SHDI_ALL -0.57 -0.93 0.69 0.47 -0.68 0.47 1
LSM_SHEI_ALL -0.57 -0.97 0.68 0.22 -0.71 0.22 0.96 1
LSM_SIDI_ALL -0.58 -0.92 0.66 0.33 -0.76 0.33 0.95 0.95 1
LSM_SIEI_ALL -0.58 -0.92 0.66 0.3 -0.76 0.3 0.94 0.96 1 1
PNC 0.13 0.31 0.02 -0.06 0.44 -0.06 -0.41 -0.43 -0.45 -0.45 1

Correlation (new)

Corn

Mean Patch Index Contagion Edge Density Largest Patch Index Richness Shannon Diversity Shannon Evenness Simpson Diversity Simpson Evenness Percent Natural Cover Soil Suitability Simpsons Diversity (Ag.) Shannon Diversity (Ag.) Richness (Ag.)
Mean Patch Index 1
Contagion 0.61 1
Edge Density -0.59 -0.84 1
Largest Patch Index 0.48 0.71 -0.52 1
Richness -0.24 -0.23 0.3 -0.13 1
Shannon Diversity -0.56 -0.93 0.69 -0.68 0.48 1
Shannon Evenness -0.56 -0.97 0.68 -0.71 0.23 0.96 1
Simpson Diversity -0.57 -0.92 0.66 -0.76 0.34 0.95 0.95 1
Simpson Evenness -0.57 -0.92 0.66 -0.76 0.31 0.94 0.96 1 1
Percent Natural Cover 0.13 0.31 0.01 0.44 -0.06 -0.41 -0.43 -0.45 -0.45 1
Soil Suitability -0.18 -0.31 0.11 -0.53 -0.04 0.32 0.36 0.39 0.39 -0.68 1
Simpsons Diversity (Ag.) -0.17 -0.16 0.2 -0.1 0.62 0.33 0.17 0.26 0.23 -0.01 0.02 1
Shannon Diversity (Ag.) -0.17 -0.2 0.26 -0.04 0.53 0.3 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.14 -0.18 0.46 1
Richness (Ag.) -0.21 -0.22 0.25 -0.14 0.95 0.47 0.23 0.33 0.3 -0.11 -0.01 0.64 0.54 1

Soy

Mean Patch Index Contagion Edge Density Largest Patch Index Richness Shannon Diversity Shannon Evenness Simpson Diversity Simpson Evenness Percent Natural Cover Soil Suitability Simpsons Diversity (Ag.) Shannon Diversity (Ag.) Richness (Ag.)
Mean Patch Index 1
Contagion 0.61 1
Edge Density -0.59 -0.84 1
Largest Patch Index 0.48 0.71 -0.52 1
Richness -0.24 -0.23 0.3 -0.13 1
Shannon Diversity -0.56 -0.93 0.69 -0.68 0.48 1
Shannon Evenness -0.56 -0.97 0.68 -0.71 0.23 0.96 1
Simpson Diversity -0.57 -0.92 0.66 -0.76 0.34 0.95 0.95 1
Simpson Evenness -0.57 -0.92 0.66 -0.76 0.31 0.94 0.96 1 1
Percent Natural Cover 0.13 0.31 0.01 0.44 -0.06 -0.41 -0.43 -0.45 -0.45 1
Soil Suitability -0.12 -0.28 -0.01 -0.5 -0.05 0.33 0.37 0.4 0.41 -0.75 1
Simpsons Diversity (Ag.) -0.17 -0.16 0.2 -0.1 0.62 0.33 0.17 0.26 0.23 -0.01 0.06 1
Shannon Diversity (Ag.) -0.17 -0.2 0.26 -0.04 0.53 0.3 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.14 -0.13 0.46 1
Richness (Ag.) -0.21 -0.22 0.25 -0.14 0.95 0.47 0.23 0.33 0.3 -0.11 0.01 0.64 0.54 1

Winter wheat

Mean Patch Index Contagion Edge Density Largest Patch Index Richness Shannon Diversity Shannon Evenness Simpson Diversity Simpson Evenness Percent Natural Cover Soil Suitability Simpsons Diversity (Ag.) Shannon Diversity (Ag.) Richness (Ag.)
Mean Patch Index 1
Contagion 0.61 1
Edge Density -0.59 -0.84 1
Largest Patch Index 0.48 0.71 -0.52 1
Richness -0.24 -0.23 0.3 -0.13 1
Shannon Diversity -0.56 -0.93 0.69 -0.68 0.48 1
Shannon Evenness -0.56 -0.97 0.68 -0.71 0.23 0.96 1
Simpson Diversity -0.57 -0.92 0.66 -0.76 0.34 0.95 0.95 1
Simpson Evenness -0.57 -0.92 0.66 -0.76 0.31 0.94 0.96 1 1
Percent Natural Cover 0.13 0.31 0.01 0.44 -0.06 -0.41 -0.43 -0.45 -0.45 1
Soil Suitability -0.21 -0.41 0.18 -0.54 0 0.42 0.46 0.47 0.48 -0.54 1
Simpsons Diversity (Ag.) -0.17 -0.16 0.2 -0.1 0.62 0.33 0.17 0.26 0.23 -0.01 0.11 1
Shannon Diversity (Ag.) -0.17 -0.2 0.26 -0.04 0.53 0.3 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.14 0 0.46 1
Richness (Ag.) -0.21 -0.22 0.25 -0.14 0.95 0.47 0.23 0.33 0.3 -0.11 0.03 0.64 0.54 1

Inputs and land use

Mean Patch Index Contagion Edge Density Largest Patch Index Richness Shannon Diversity Shannon Evenness Simpson Diversity Simpson Evenness Percent Natural Cover Insecticide Herbicide Fertilizer
Mean Patch Index 1
Contagion 0.78 1
Edge Density -0.79 -0.83 1
Largest Patch Index 0.54 0.69 -0.48 1
Richness -0.24 -0.17 0.24 -0.05 1
Shannon Diversity -0.69 -0.93 0.67 -0.66 0.4 1
Shannon Evenness -0.68 -0.96 0.65 -0.7 0.17 0.97 1
Simpson Diversity -0.66 -0.91 0.63 -0.74 0.26 0.95 0.96 1
Simpson Evenness -0.66 -0.91 0.63 -0.75 0.23 0.94 0.96 1 1
Percent Natural Cover 0.05 0.22 0.16 0.45 -0.01 -0.36 -0.38 -0.41 -0.42 1
Insecticide -0.11 -0.27 0 -0.31 0.19 0.4 0.38 0.39 0.39 -0.62 1
Herbicide -0.04 -0.24 -0.16 -0.42 0.07 0.39 0.4 0.43 0.43 -0.89 0.79 1
Fertilizer -0.12 -0.29 -0.07 -0.45 0.09 0.42 0.42 0.45 0.45 -0.85 0.77 0.95 1

Distributions

Landscape indicator maps

Agricultural predictor maps

Corn

Soy

Winter wheat

Landscape change

Plots showing percent change in the landscape index in 2018 as compared to 2008.

Soil and yield interactions

Strangely, some of the higher yielding county-years we document are in areas with fairly low soil suitability, particularly for corn and winter wheat. Other research suggests that these are regions where heavy use of inputs are offsetting low suitability.

Corn

## [1] 0.3777883

Soy

## [1] 0.3978889

Winter wheat

## [1] 0.09903373

Where are these high-yielding, low-suitability regions?

Let’s look at areas where yields are more than 1 SD above average yields and soil suitability is less than 1 SD below average suitability:

How much corn and winter wheat is actually grown in these regions?

Note that for soy, only one county falls into the high yield (>1SD), low suitability (<1SD) categorization.

Inputs